The Recession’s Real Winner

One year ago, the leading governments of the world saved the global economy. Remember October 2008: Lehman Brothers had disappeared, AIG was teetering, every bank was watching its balance sheet collapse. Around the world, credit had frozen and trade was grinding to a halt. Then came a series of moves beginning in Washington—bank bailouts, rescue packages, fiscal stimuli, and, most crucially, monetary easing. It is not an exaggeration to say that these measures prevented a depression. But the crisis has still fueled a major slowdown that has affected every country in the world.
The great surprise of 2009 has been the resilience of the big emerging markets—India, China, Indonesia—whose economies have stayed vibrant. But one country has not just survived but thrived: China. The Chinese economy will grow at 8.5 percent this year, exports have rebounded to where they were in early 2008, foreign-exchange reserves have hit an all-time high of $2.3 trillion, and Beijing's stimulus package has launched the next great phase of infrastructure building in the country. Much of this has been driven by remarkably effective government policies. Charles Kaye, CEO of the global private-equity firm Warburg Pincus, lived in Hong Kong for years. After his last trip to China a few months ago he said to me, "All other governments have responded to this crisis defensively, protecting their weak spots. China has used it to move aggressively forward." It is fair to say that the winner of the global economic crisis is Beijing.

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